My official plays

[jcambert]

Ok, guys, here goes. I've made TWO separate plays. This film is playing in 3408 theaters. I simply don't see this film doing more than $14,000 per theater. In fact, I'm pegging it to do right around $12,500 to $13,000 per theater. On the high end, it will do $14,000 and, if it does, it will do $47.7 mil. There is TREMENDOUS value in the under.

I played the UNDER 50 mil +110 at WSEX, and, I played the UNDER 47.5 mil +140 at Olympic.

For the record, my official prediction is $44.3 mil.

Good luck to all.

JP

 

[Oren1]

I think I'm going to stick with the under 50. Good luck with your under 47.5.

 

[jcambert]

Again, it's about value. I can't blame you for sticking with the UNDER 50, however, I can tell you this. This is probably the type of movie that won't be that close either way. Either I will be wrong and it will be a huge hit, bringing in around 60mil, or, as I suspect is a much more likely scenario, it will bomb and bring in maybe 40 to 45 mil. I will tell you that, as I've preached in the past, gambling is all about value (you've heard the heads or tails example a million times), and, to get +140 on the UNDER 47.5 mil, you would only have to hit that about 41% of the time in order to break even. I would say that the ACTUAL likeliehood of it coming in under 47.5mil is about 55%, maybe higher.

Good luck to you, man.

JP

 

[Oren1]

yeah, this one's really hard to guage. I'm surprised, there seems to be a lot of interest out there for this movie, but I kinda shrug it off whenever I see the preview. Besides the buzz index, it's also #1 at moviephone, for people looking for playing times, but that's to be expected as it doesn't have any new competition this week. It does appear that it will beat out Finding Nemo, though, maybe, just from that one factor, and with Nemo potentially taking 45 million this week, again it could be close.

 

[Gillian]

Nah, it's going to do great. 50 million. It will do better than the first. Vin Diesel wasn't the reason for the first movie's sucess. If he was... why did his films that came out afterwards, ex: Knock Around Guys, suck so badly at the box office. No, this movie will hit around 50 million. Sequals of popular movies usually do better.

 

[Oren1]

I'm getting worried about this one. I might hedge it at Olympic and possibly take a loss, or a middle, but this is not good news IMO. I've never been to Australia but I'm guessing their teen market it pretty indicative of our own.

from variety.com:

Quick start for '2 Fast' down under
Sequel speeds past original's preem numbers

By DON GROVES

If its bow in Australia is an indicator, "2 Fast 2 Furious" will be travelling in the fast lane.

Roaring out of the starting gates Thursday, a day before its U.S. preem, "2 Fast 2 Furious" pulled in $702,000 on around 300 prints.

That's 40% more than the first day of its predecessor, "The Fast and the Furious," which bowed on 254 prints and went on to amass $6.6 million Down Under.

The Universal/UIP actioner had a dream release date, with no serious competition over the weekend, and it will have a two-week window before BVI's "Bruce Almighty" preems June 19.

Monday is a public holiday in Oz, so the pic will have the benefit of a long weekend. Industryites are projecting a five-day tally of around $3.2 million.

"We're absolutely delighted to have beaten the first film, and we're looking forward to a great holiday weekend," said UIP Australia managing director Mike Selwyn.

Aussie auds are embracing "2 Fast" despite the absence of the original's headliner Vin Diesel, who pulled out of the sequel after a row over his fee.

Domestically, Universal execs figure sequel has a shot at exceeding its predecessor's $40.1 million bow in June 2001, but they won't say by how much. Pre-release tracking skewed heavily toward younger patrons and urban auds.

U insiders also confide they wouldn't mind meeting results from another Diesel vehicle, "XXX" from Sony/Revolution. Actioner opened with $44.5 million last August.

 

[jcambert]

Boxofficereport is predicting $48mil

 

[wtf]

JC,
Why do you expect the theater avg to be so much less that the first one with no real competition other than Nemo?

 

[jcambert]

Well, number one, you are discounting the competition of Finding Nemo. To say that it has no other real competition, other than Finding Nemo, which will make more than $40mil, is kind of silly, because Nemo is TREMENDOUS competition. Secondly, although the first one didn't DEPEND on Vin Diesel, it certainly helped. Thirdly, this has been garnering pretty horrid reviews (and, yes, I know that Ebert and a couple of others have given it a pretty good review, but, far greater are the number of critics who have given it GOD AWFUL reviews). Also, it's Fresh/Rotten rating at Rottentomatoes is around 30%, which is not good...not good at all.

This is actually a pretty strong play. There are just too many question marks with this film.

JP

 

[jcambert]

There are TWO movie critics who's reviews I read religiously. One is Roger Ebert, and the other is James Berardinelli, who has become one of the prominent critics on the web today. Below, you will find a link to his review of 2Fast. He gave it one half of one star.

http://movie-reviews.colossus.net/movies/f/fast_furious2.html

JP

 

[wtf]

OK pardon my silliness, but I did not say that Nemo was no competetion, but the onlycompetetion. IE the vast majority of moviegoers will have a choice of 2 films to see this weekend, and I am hoping enough go to 2fast to push it over.

Secondly a seasoned film connisseur such as yourself may have been aware of Vin before Fast 1, but other than a small role in Boiler Room what the hell made him such a big draw?

Thirdly as far as movie critics, another silly opinion I have is that reviews dont have that big of an impact as far as opening weekends are concerned. Your boy Berardinelli gave Bruce 1.5 stars and it 'only' did 68 mill. I personally dont let critics decide what I spend my $$ on, if its looks interesting I see it and if it sucks then my fault.

In any case,good luck, but not on this one.

 

[Gillian]

I agree with you WTF. It'll do great. Ebert gave it 3 stars. $$$

 

[jcambert]

WTF, in the future, don't ask my opinion if your intent is to argue. You asked for my opinion...I gave it, then you came back and were snippy with me.

As for your condecending "film connosieur" comment. I do this for a living. What do YOU do? I didn't think so.

And, all that I can say is...we'll see.

I never said that Diesel was a huge impact on the first...nor did I say that anyone knew who he was before this.

And, as for Nemo, it is IMMENSE competition. I doubt very seriously that TWO films in ANY weekend are going to come close to making $50 mil each, and, as such, my money is on Nemo, not "Fast."

Again, it's obvious that you think that this film will go over, which is fine, but, in the end, it's all speculation until the final numbers are tallied. May the best man win.

JP

 

[jcambert]

Hey, WTS, take a look at Boxofficemojo.com who's predictions are probably the most accurate on the web, along with Boxofficereport.com. He is using a $10,000 per theater average, putting this film BELOW $35million.

JP

 

[wtf]

JP thanks dude, Ill check it out.

i ridnt intend to get snippy or argue. I asked for your reasoning & was dismissed with a "silly" comment. That is all.

I think it will go over, but according to predictions it looks like I will lose. Wont be the first, or last time.

didnt realize you did this for a living b/c earlier you were asking for expert opinions & analysis. As for what I do I am a retired iron-worker currently renting out apartment buildings.

Thank you for you time & opinion
Its all good.

 

[wtf]

PS did you see the MTV movie awards?

Since your in the industry I was wondering if you knew who the fine Barzilian (Spanish?) chick was that intro'd Ashton and P Diddly??

 

[jcambert]

I've never requested expert opinions. What I requested were Boxoffice websites who post same. I think it's silly NOT to seek out other people's opinions on matter that you might not know as well as someone else does. But, yes, I do this for a living (not just the box office betting obviously, but, rather, betting in general). In addition, I invest in Real Estate, like yourself.

JP

 

[jcambert]

I'm not in the movie industry. When I said that I did this for a living, I was talking about gambling.

JP

 

[wtf]

"As for your condecending "film connosieur" comment. I do this for a living. What do YOU do? I didn't think so."

"Anyone know where you can get expert opinions, or analysis on this stuff?

Any help would be appreciated.

JP"

sorry, I misunderstood. guess that means you dont know her.

yours,
silly

 

[Oren1]

I did end up hedging, by the way, I took it over 48 at Olympic at a ridiculous price, something like -170. So unless it goes under, which I'm starting to doubt that it wll, or I pull a middle here, I'm going to lose some.